Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 1.071769 1.301556 1.546761 1.825773 2.132429 2.457339 2.825789
2024-10-13 0.748387 1.054485 1.407281 1.834869 2.330742 2.880335 3.528436
2024-10-20 0.557829 0.888487 1.293255 1.806575 2.423686 3.127431 3.977151
2024-10-27 0.489491 0.857961 1.329821 1.947584 2.708376 3.592088 4.675012
2024-11-03 0.432923 0.829427 1.358139 2.069399 2.962893 4.016168 5.321965
2024-11-10 0.386137 0.805544 1.386118 2.186156 3.208444 4.428561 5.955783
2024-11-17 0.347567 0.786504 1.415509 2.300999 3.449273 4.834234 6.581764
2024-11-24 0.295094 0.737085 1.396717 2.347928 3.601522 5.130716 7.076768
2024-12-01 0.240259 0.673881 1.351309 2.353775 3.697411 5.355559 7.483988
2024-12-08 0.178375 0.585168 1.259093 2.288193 3.695179 5.454830 7.735734
2024-12-15 0.128737 0.506273 1.172835 2.223785 3.688964 5.545053 7.973319
2024-12-22 0.097185 0.455092 1.124238 2.208241 3.743875 5.709366 8.299676
2024-12-29 0.075064 0.421309 1.105590 2.242013 3.875047 5.984174 8.781497
2025-01-05 0.052919 0.378257 1.066663 2.243410 3.961828 6.203579 9.197586
2025-01-12 0.033376 0.330010 1.011436 2.214623 4.002672 6.360334 9.532362
2025-01-19 0.032405 0.344786 1.074816 2.372201 4.306859 6.863121 10.307208
2025-01-26 0.029925 0.352782 1.125008 2.509241 4.582750 7.329924 11.038069
2025-02-02 0.027196 0.358621 1.170860 2.639729 4.850152 7.786783 11.758051
2025-02-09 0.024574 0.363739 1.215122 2.767971 5.115072 8.241460 12.476828
2025-02-16 0.018096 0.346500 1.212837 2.820257 5.271107 8.552553 13.013412
2025-02-23 0.011096 0.317735 1.183685 2.826776 5.360156 8.774322 13.435906
2025-03-02 0.004184 0.270579 1.109000 2.753677 5.330752 8.836241 13.652066
2025-03-09 0.000836 0.228457 1.037985 2.681802 5.299598 8.893286 13.860040